Europe/America: a choice?
It felt good to be British this morning. I read an article in today's Telegraph about how an American Senator with a bit of imfluence and power was proposing to set up an investigation into the possible side-effects on the American economy of British entry into NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Association. If the results proved to be that British membership would be beneficial, Congress would perhaps pass a resolution inviting Britain to join a free trade area which includes the largest economy in the world, and one which has been growing for the past nine years.
Surely there must be a catch, I hear you cry. Well... yes. To join NAFTA would require British withdrawal from the European Union. We would effectively be swapping one union for another; but what would be the consequences of such a move?
Certainly, the EU is viewed in America as a protectionist fortress, with high cost producers, high unemployment and low growth. In essence, they cannot understand why we should wish to stay in the EU. Most of this is true; but 50% of Britain's trade is with the EU. If we withdrew, then we would be subject to the same high tariffs and European idiosyncracies that America is currently suffering.
Other more selfish reasons abound for the US wanting us to join them instead of Europe. It is worried that Europe is trying to become a superpower like itself, a balance if you will. Naturally it wishes to preserve its position as the world's only superpower; joining with Britain, soon to be the world's fourth largest economy, would give it a massive boost while knocking the EU for six.
What about the British perspective? At the moment, no party except the UK Independence Party supports EU withdrawal, and that would be unlikely to support NAFTA entry. There would be vociferous support for remaining in the EU; exporters would not appreciate tariffs suddenly being imposed on 50% of their trade. But what about some more idealistic arguments? It could be said that Britain is more like America than Europe, and will always be; America is her natural partner. There is a common language; there would be no threat to Britain's national identity, such as that posed by the Euro, since this is only a free trade area, not a union.
In fact, there are many arguments both for and against each side. America would like us to join them; Europe would like us, as a major European player, to stay with them.
I cannot see it happening soon. Not in ten years; maybe not in twenty. But in the long-term, without reform, American dynamism will power ahead of Europe's tired, inflexible economies. The UK is presently in the middle. At some point, we will face a choice. And we must make sure it is the right one.