decisions, decisionsveryard projects > kmoi > decisions
|we offer||scope||available material||links|
|education, training and skills
information and advice on methods and tools
supporting materials - including patterns
|In order to understand what is involved in supporting a decision, it is useful to consider what is involved in making one.||Pitfalls of decision-support --
Hamlet and the Delphic Oracle
Decision Frameworksveryard projects > kmoi > decisions > frameworks
|Herbert Simon||Geoffrey Vickers||Jacques Lacan|
|Value Judgement (Evaluation)
Reality Judgement (Appreciation)
|Instant of Seeing
Time for Understanding
Moment of Decision
The IT (decision-support) agenda has been dominated by the Simon view, and has neglected alternative views. Vickers emphasises the subjective and value-laden nature of intelligent judgement. Lacan offers a useful way of understanding haste and delay in decision-making.
Decisions: Haste and Hesitationveryard projects > kmoi > decisions > procrastination
Two contrasting styles/cultures can be identified
|Delay / Hesitation / Procrastination||Haste / Impatience|
|It is always possible to find a reason (excuse) for deferring a decision.
||Because it is always possible to find a reason for delay, some people
/ organizations are inclined to dismiss such reasons, or are reluctant
to take them seriously.
Some people / organizations are impatient with anything that inhibits action.
|Lacan's Theory of Time|
|Robert Louis Stevenson’s motto, that it is better to
travel hopefully than to arrive, was probably taken from a Japanese proverb.
An extended literary version of this can be found in Cavafy’s poem ‘Ithaka’.
His advice to the seafarer has been summarized as follows:
Pray that the way be long, that your journey be full of adventures and experiences. You must always have Ithaka in mind, arrival there is your predestination - but do not hurry the journey, better that it last many years. You enter harbours never seen before, and rich with all you have gained along the way, do not expect Ithaka to give you riches. Ithaka has given you a lovely journey, without Ithaka you would not have set out.
Pitfalls of Decision-Support - Hamlet and the Delphic Oracleveryard projects > kmoi > decisions > hamlet
The ghost of Hamlet's father gave him an analysis of the situation, and advised him to take his revenge. I don't want to reveal the ending, since this might spoil the play for you if you don't know it already. Suffice it to say that six people die instead of one, yielding an efficiency ratio of only 17%.
Several reasons can be offered for this unsatisfactory result. Firstly, Hamlet doesn't fully trust the ghost. The reliability of the analysis and advice depends on authenticating the ghost's identity -- is it really his father, or is it the devil playing tricks? Secondly, maybe Hamlet doesn't ask the ghost the right question. (Freudians argue that he should have asked about his mother, since that was his primary anxiety.)
|A good decision-support system justifies its analysis and its advice, so that the decision-maker is not distracted from the primary problem onto secondary ones -- how reliable is the advice, how authentic is the source of the advice.|
|A good decision-support system is open and transparent -- not surrounded in mystery.|
|A good decision-support system prompts the decision-maker to consider all aspects of the problem -- the quality of the advice does not depend solely on the decision-maker's ability to think of the right questions.|
On these criteria, both Hamlet's father and the Delphic Oracle can be
regarded as failures.
|veryard projects > kmoi > decisions||
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